Thailand population

World population set to decline for the first time in centuries

“The last time the world population declined was in the middle of the 14th century, because of the Black Death”

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A new study published in the Lancet journal found that for the first time in centuries, the world’s population is expected to decline from the next few decades.

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There are currently around 7.8 billion people in the world. Experts estimate that the world’s population will peak at around 9.7 billion in 2064 before dropping steadily to 8.79 billion in 2100.

Up to 23 countries, including Japan, Thailand, Italy, Spain, Portugal and South Korea, could see their populations shrink by 50% due to low birth rates and an aging population .

Even China, the world’s most populous country and a nation often associated with sky-high population growth, is expected to grow from 1.4 billion people to 732 million by 2100.

  1. Chinese families may find that one child is enough after all, although they are legally capable of having two.

    China crackdown on vasectomies as it searches for ways to stop its population decline

  2. China's birth rates have weakened even after Beijing eased its decades-long family planning policy in 2015, allowing couples to have two children instead of one.

    China to announce first population decline since 1949 despite easing one-child policy

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Stein Emil Vollset, lead author of the study and professor of global health at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), detailed the findings.

“The last time the world population declined was in the middle of the 14th century, because of the Black Death,” he said. IFLScience . “If our predictions are correct, this will be the first time that the population decline has been caused by a decline in fertility, as opposed to events such as a pandemic or famine. “

Some countries, however, are expected to experience an increase in population.

North Africa, the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa are expected to triple their populations, from 1.03 billion in 2017 to 3.07 billion in 2100.

“Africa and the Arab world will shape our future, while Europe and Asia will lose influence,” said Vollset. “By the end of the century, the world will be multipolar, with India, Nigeria, China and the United States as the dominant powers. “

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Vollset attributes the shrinking population to two key factors: “Improving access to modern contraception and education for girls and women.

“These factors determine the fertility rate – the average number of children a woman gives birth in her lifetime, which is the biggest determinant of population. The total global fertility rate is expected to decline steadily, from 2.37 in 2017 to 1.66 in 2100, well below the minimum rate (2.1 live births per woman) considered necessary to maintain the population.

A few days ago, Elon Musk shared similar sentiments at the Wall Street Journal’s annual CEO Council.

“I think one of the biggest risks to civilization is the low birth rate and the rapidly declining birth rate,” said the CEO of Tesla. “And yet so many people, including smart people, think that there are too many people in the world and think the population is getting out of hand. It’s quite the opposite. Please look at the numbers. – if people don’t have more children, civilization will collapse, take note of my words. “

When discussing how the Tesla Bot could potentially solve some of the world’s workforce issues, he said these robots would be a “widespread substitute for human labor over time.”

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